#ES_F Daily Plan March 22 2024

Continued weakness in the overnight session as we roll into Friday with four Fed speakers on the board. We are watching for signs of continuation back into balance.

Previous Day Review

Following a strong overnight session, ES opened with a 25 point gap building on momentum from yesterdays trend day. Despite multiple attempts to establish new highs, we observed poor highs in B and C period, with periods D and E falling just short of qualifying as poor highs.

We made new highs in F period but we could only manage 3 ticks before a pullback. Again in G period we could only auction 2 ticks above F's high before auctioning lower.

In periods H, I, J, and K, we witnessed an inventory correction and one-timeframed down. M period stopped the one timeframing down before continuing lower and closing near the lows.

Key Points

• Light volume at 990k and small range of 22.75 points.

• Higher value.

Session Stats
Volume: 990k
Range: 22.75 points
Rotational Factor: -6
Delta: +2600

Overnight Review (updated at 0700 CT)

The overnight session is rotational with a break lower in the Euro session. Volume is very light suggesting inventory correction as opposed to heavy selling.

Session Stats
Volume: 170k
Range: 18 points
Rotational Factor: 3
Delta: +2000
Positioning: 60% short

Mission Plan

We still have a lot of weak structure below us but we have stronger structure above us. As we drift lower overnight I feel better about the opportunities to the short side and even the long side as price becomes more attractive for the bulls.

I am cautious of low volume. If we do not have strong volume this morning I may start the weekend early.

Scenario 1

I am looking for price to advertise higher and find sellers as we look to open below the previous range.

5300 pLOD is the one place on my map I am interested in shorting. If we open below pLOD I will watch that reference for the auction to change hands. A short here targets the gap fill and then look for possible reversion higher. If we cannot get back to pLOD I will look for continued weakness and possible liquidation.

Lower Levels for scenario 1

5271 Top of the Singles and structure from 3/20. 5257 Previous All Time High. 5245 Top of the previous balance and my target for liquidation.

Scenario 2

My second scenario for today is sideways to higher.

5290 is the Gap Fill. I look for price to either reject quickly or build a base with a look below and fail. A long here targets the gap fill.

Notable Earnings
No notable earnings

Important Economic Releases (central time)
0700: Jerome Powell
0800: Philip Jefferson
1015: Michael Barr
1400: Raphael Bostic