#ES_F Daily Trading Plan March 26 2024
Light news day ahead after a very poor auction yesterday. Is there is any life in ES or do we have a liquidation in the cards.
Previous Day Review
After gapping down 12 points overnight we spent most of the session moving higher towards the gap fill. After finding sellers 1 tick below the previous LOD we saw an inventory correction taking us back towards LOD and closing near unchanged.
Key Points
Extremely low volume of 650k and range of 14.50 points.
Neutral delta.
Session Stats
Volume: 650k
Range: 14.50 points
Rotational Factor: 3
Delta: +1000
Overnight Review (updated at 0830 CT)
In a reversal of the previous session we opened up and have been moving higher, retracing the previous days RTH and ETH session. We have one timeframed up throughout the Euro session up to this point.
Session Stats
Volume: 140k
Range: 24 points
Rotational Factor: 15
Delta: +4000
Positioning: 100% long
Mission Plan
After OTFD with lower value the last two days ES is gapping up in the overnight session, retracing the previous RTH and ETH session with no apparent catalyst.
We are in an uptrend on the Monthly and Weekly timeframes and in a 3-day balance on the Daily timeframe. The gap up should be a welcome development as we are gapping in the direction of the higher timeframe trends and looking to open above the previous range and value area providing a higher probability of developing value higher.
Scenario 1
Gap higher, move lower. We could potentially move higher at the open and find sellers which would cause us to OTFD most of the session. These are conflicting days as we OTFU, develop higher value, but trade lower most of the session. This scenario is likely to see a late day move higher as shorts cover into the close although we could see an outside day if we get liquidation and new selling. I will be watching RVOL and Tempo to confirm the move down.
5306 3-22 HOD and Poor High. We have the potential to leave a weak high here as positioning gets to long and sellers step in. I look for this level to be sold with a high Risk/Reward trade.5297-5300 3-22 TPOC, VPOC and 3-21 LOD.5289 3-25 HOD, 3-22 LOD Weak High.5284 Previous 11-wide TPOC. I look for this to be support and possibly mean revert into the close.
Scenario 2
Gap and Go. There is the potential to make new record highs today as the ONH is currently only 22 points away from the previous ATH. We have low overnight volume and a lot of shorts that will be underwater at the open. High RVOL and negative delta will increase the probabilities of this scenario.
5289 is my line in the sand for this idea. If we trade lower I would not expect a trend day up.5297-5300 3-22 TPOC, VPOC and 3-21 LOD.5306 3-22 HOD and Poor High. We have the potential to leave a weak high here as positioning gets to long and sellers step in. I look for this level to be sold with a high Risk/Reward trade.5322 All Time Highs.5358 Call Wall and 5300 SPX.
Notable Earnings
AM: MKCImportant Economic Releases (central time)
0730: U.S. Durable Goods
0900: U.S> Richmond Fed Composite Index
1200: 5-yr Note Auction
Other Markets
/GC has had a large move up in the overnight session. A look above the previous HOD and fail could result in a large move down. If prices are accepted above we could see a squeeze higher.
/SI has supply overhead. Above 25.15 could see a good move higher.
/PL is positioned to break above the 5-day pivot.
/MBT continuation of the OTFU.
$AMZN $180 support.
$NVDA $950 Support.
$TSLA has clear skies to $200. $175 ans $172.50 are support levels.