#ES_F Futures Daily Analysis

Indexes are trading modestly lower ahead of tomorrows FOMC announcement.

Previous Day Review

After a strong move up late in the overnight session ES opened with a true gap of 23 points. We saw the 5222 level from the price map hold as support and the IBL. We rotated higher in A and B period. B period one timeframed up setting the IBH and RTH HOD at 5240.25, a few ticks shy of the 5241 supply area also in the price map.

After putting in the IBH (which was unbroken) we one timeframed down in C through F period before taking the IBL in G period. The market mostly balanced the rest of the session until the end of the day when M period put in an exploratory spike lower to 5210.25, the RTH LOD.

Key Points

• Gapped up (held half gap)

• Took the Overnight High

• Higher Value

As always it is important to recognize what we couldn't get done today. The bulls could not breach the 5240-5246 supply area falling short again today. We also couldn't close the gap although we did trade to half gap, leaving a price probe in M period.

To summarize, the plan this morning provided plenty of context and good areas to watch the auction in order to be aware of what the market might do today. In this mornings note I spoke about how tricky gap days like today can be when we gap higher, build higher value, and also one timeframe lower most of the day.

Session Stats
Volume: 1.0 mln
Range: 30 points
Rotational Factor: -8
Delta: -5500

Overnight Review (updated at 0900 CT)

ES traded lower through the Asian session. Early in the Euro session we auctioned above the Asia HOD and pSettle. This quick move was met with sellers as the market sold off to new lows. We are currently building a double distribution inside Friday's range down 21 points in the Overnight.

Session Stats
Volume: 240k
Range: 33 pts
Rotational Factor: -18
Delta: +3k
Positioning: 100% short

Mission Plan

We have obvious weakness in the overnight session as we gap down below the previous gap that was unfilled. When the market stops making sense I get more cautious. I will be looking for continuation of the move down but I will need to see market generated information clearly in favor of continuation down.

I am aware that we have FOMC tomorrow so there will likely be less range than yesterday so the opportunies may be less as well.

Open above 5183

I will look for support around 5183 which is an area of confluence. I do not expect much upside

5183 is an area of confluence with Fridays (and the previous weekly) settle, Friday's TPOC, and structure. I will look for this to act as support. 5201 Friday's HOD. Above here I will look for the gap to fill and target previous LOD at 5210. 5225 Previous POC becomes a target. 5240-46 is the supply area where we found sellers yesterday.

Open Below or move below 5183

Again I don't expecte a huge move but we have areas to target and we could see strong selling/liquidation.

5167 Fridays LOD . 5157 Is the balance low. This is my ultimate target for the downside. We could potentially see a move lower but the selling would need to be strong. At this level I would expect reversion back into the range.

Noteable Earnings
Before the bell: XPEV, TME, CAL After the bell: CRVS, ZTO

Important Economic Releases (central time)
1200: 20-yr Auction