#ES_F Futures Daily Analysis Mar 12 2024

CPI day after a day where we gapped lower and built value lower we are set to move higher.

Mar 12, 2024

Previous Session Debrief

Yesterday we had a bearish start with a bullish finish. Its hard to group these days into any category besides neutral. Volume was decent on M contract considering we are 70% through rollover.

We opened with a true gap lower and after an open auction we moved lower unable to fill the gap. B period extended the lows setting the IBL and LOD. The rest of the day was overlapping bars the mostly OTFU with a few pullbacks testing the bid. We took the morning HOD in G period which was pushed higher in H, I and K period closing the gap. We closed the day inside the previous range.

Key Takeaways:

11 Wide POC.
Second gap lower in March (2 gaps lower in February).
Value was lower on the day despite closing higher.
Closed at Monthly vwap.

Premarket Brief

Updated at 0900 CT

I end my RTH session at M period so the maintenance period is included in ETH (N and O periods).

The overnight session opened up and moved higher taking the pHOD in O period. R period continued the auction higher apparently on ORCL earnings. The rest of the Asian session was bullish as we continued OTFU most of the night.

The Euro session started with an inventory correction and has been balancing out in a tight 9-point range ahead of CPI.

Notable Earnings:

Notable Releases (central time):

Current Business:

CPI - the volatility before the open will give us some clues but I will wait until after the market opens to see what the reaction is.

Mission Plan

We are currently extending the ON session higher as we gap up after CPI. At the open I am going to give some time for the market to digest CPI and let any inventory correct before I make any trades. The Overnight inventory is very long with a +25-point true gap currently.

After releases with large reactions I believe the auction resets, so I will need to watch today to get clues about where the most accepted price is at now and where the buyers and sellers are. I do not need to trade today so unless I see something high probability I will keep my powder dry. The picture below shows my levels for this balance area. To round the numbers off I am watching 5200, 5210, 5225, and 5250 for indications of the strength of the new auction.