#ES_F Futures Daily Analysis March 18th 2024

Last week was in inside bar but we maintain the higher timeframe uptrend for now. FOMC is this Wednesday.

Previous Day Review

On Friday ES behaved as expected with a rotation balance day that continued the daily one timeframing down from Thursday's session. Here is what the sellers accomplished in Friday's session.

• Gapped lower (true gap).

• Moved value lower.

• Acceptance of value lower with a wide TPOC of 11 TPOs slightly below the session halfback.

• Closed below the previous day's low.

Although we made good progress lower there are a couple of things that stand out to me from the session. We had a neutral day profile although the break higher was early in the session and quickly auctioned lower. We were not able to find price acceptance below the Initial Balance low and only left 3 ticks of excess suggesting that perhaps the market was too short or we found a price that buyers were willing to accept. Last but not least, the majority of the move happened in the overnight session.

We also have to keep in mind that Friday was quad-witching and there were forces at play that will not be in the market come Monday. To summarize, we had a productive move lower with good volume setting us up for further continuation to the downside on Monday.

Session Stats
Volume: 1.4 mln contracts
Range: 34 pts
Rotational Factor: -1
Delta: -16k

Overnight Review (updated at 0800 CT)

The overnight session moved higher throughout the Asian session to find some resistance at Friday's HOD. Late in the Euro session we saw a squeeze higher that has us currently positioned around 20 points above Friday's range.

Session Stats
Volume: 150k (light)
Range: 44 pts (above average)
Rotational Factor: 24 (bullish)
Delta: +1000
Positioning: 100% Long

Mission Plan

Large gaps can be tricky but my overall bias is to trade in the direction of the gap. My first focus though is to watch for an inventory correction/gap fill early in the session.

We can have a day where we open higher, build value higher, and still one timeframe down all day. I will take early attempts at breaking the 30-second Opening Range down. With inventory this long I believe the probabilities are in my favor.

Open above 5201

The game plan here is to look for acceptance above Friday's range. If we fail at any attempts to move lower then I will look for more upside. Slow tempo, small pullbacks in the direction of the gap are worth monitioring for continuation.

5201 is Fridays HOD, 1σ↑ and stops the One Timeframing down. I am looking for buyers to step in at this level if we fill the gap.
Overnight High | Open I'm not sure where this will be yet but I will be targeting these levels to take risk off when we get to them. 5222 This is the afternoon pullback high and value area high on 3/14 as well as 2σ↑.
5241-46 is a supply area with multiple days of excess.

Acceptance back into Friday's range

5190 is the afternoon pullback high. If we find buyers here I will still look for upside back to Friday's HOD at 5201.
5180-82 is TPOC | ONL | pSettle. 5167 is Friday's LOD. This isn't a poor low but there isn't much excess either. I will look for buyers/ short-covering here at first. Multiple moves to this level will likely fail lower.

Noteable Earnings
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Important Economic Releases
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